bye bye buckwild and tax shelters. hello world champion philadelphia phillies

First of all, sorry for the delay in between my last post and this one. I have been golfing a lot (since I'm not going to be able to go as much as it gets closer to finals) and I have a draft of a 30 page term paper due next Monday, so I have been a little busy. I do want to comment on a couple of recent events though. First, there was last night's episode of I Love Money. Also, I want to discuss all that happened (or actually what didn't happen) at last week's meeting of the G-20 nations. Lastly, I want to welcome back the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, and try to put together a quick preview of their season and try to preview the rest of baseball.

Well, I am very happy that Becky Buckwild got kicked off I Love Money last night. With Taylor Made's alliance in full control of the game at this point, it was inevitable that she would be going home at some point, but I'm glad it was sooner rather than later. Becky was thoroughly annoying all season, not to mention she is just plain gross to look at. I also hated her because she was the number one challenege thrower when there were still teams, which definitely made the game less interesting to watch. At this point I really think its anyones game, and I think 20 Pack's move to accept Taylor Made's deal and send home Buckwild was very smart on his part. He is by far the most athletic person left, and if he can win either next week's or the following week's challenge, I think he has a good shot at stealing a couple people from Taylor Made's alliance and making it to the end. We will see. If I had to handicap the race for the $250k at this point (I'm not doing odds, just picking favorites), I think Prancer is the favorite, Ice is second, Myamee is third, 20 Pack is fourth and Taylor Made is fifth. I really think Taylor Made, despite being the leader of the largest alliance, I too un-athletic to win, and eventually someone will turn on him.

Next, President Obama addressed the leaders of the other G-20 nations last week, and despite the tremendous pressure that is being put on him to help turn the global economy around, he really didn't do much (which I am very happy about). His main thesis in the speech is that the global community should attempt to crack down on tax havens, many of which are located in small islands, especially in the Caribbean. According to Obama, these countries cost governments all around the world billions of dollars a year. If the global community does not work together to stop them, then governments all around the world will have their efforts to fix their own economies undermined.

What bull shit. Do you know what I think tax havens real function is? To provide low tax competition to big tax, socialist governments all over the world. The only true effect of eliminating these tax havens would be for the average global tax rate to go up, lowering the incentive for investment, slowing growth even further, and lower the average standard of living in the world. No one wants a large percentage of their income to go to the government, especially when Obama's tax plan will have the top tax payers paying well over 50% of their income to federal and state taxes. Tax havens serve as a check on governments who raise taxes too high. If their rates grow out of control, those who wish to avoid the tax burden will simply move their assets to a tax haven. Rather than trying to compete with the very reason that the countries are attractive to investors and other entrepreneurs, the G-20 just demagogues these countries and try to make them illegal. Obviously, they think its a competition that they couldn't win. In times of economic downturn, rather than trying to eliminate the from competition countries that are still doing ok because of their belief in the free market, maybe the G-20 countries should try to emulate what makes them successful. However, that won't fit their socialist agenda.

Finally, the World Champion Phillies (yes I am going to write WORLD CHAMPIONS as many times as I possibly can) opened up play against the Braves on Sunday night. Although they lost 4-1, it is only one game, and there are 161 to go. They will be fine. Our lineup is potent, but we faced a tough sinkerballer in Derek Lowe. The Phils have always struggled against sinkerballers, and if you watched you saw that they started hitting as soon as Lowe got out of the game. But regardless of how they played the other night, I feel really good about this Phillies team. Obviously they lost their best right handed bat, and one of the team's leaders in Bat "The Bat" Burrell, but this is a resilient team, and they will be able to move on with Burrell in the clubhouse. What really struck me was how many Phillies lost weight in the off season. Both Ryan Howard and Brett Myers looked twenty pounds lighter. Right now it may not look like a good thing. Howard went 0-4, and Myers allowed four runs through six innings, all from three home runs. But I think it will be good for both of them. I'm always in favor of pro athletes getting in better shape in the off season, and that's what they both did. Howard will come around, and hopefully his off season conditioning will lead to a faster start. And despite the fact that I was screaming profanities at Brett Myers all night on Sunday, he really didn't pitch that bad. He had 3-4 mistake pitches, and the Braves made him pay on every one. Other than that, he didn't let a Braves' runner reach third base.

Looking at this team as a whole, I think the key to the offense is going to be two out fielders, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino. These are going to be our only two bats who will be in the middle part of the lineup who can bat right handed (Victorino is a switch hitter). With Burrell's departure and the signing of Raul Ibanez, this team doesn't have a true power bat from the right size. I think Werth is very capable at filling that role, as he showed at times last season.

However, the key to the season, as it always is, is pitching. I think Cole Hamels will compete for a Cy Young this year after getting in the national spotlight when he won the World Series MVP. I think Myers will recover, and have a solid year because his stuff is just so nasty, and he just needs to get his head straight. Jaime Moyer is my hero, and he will be a very adequate number 3. The bullpen will be solid once we get back J.C. Romero, as we have everyone back from a great bullpen from last year. The real questions are the 4 and 5 starters. Joe Blanton and Chan Ho Park? Really? Not that impressive and we need at least one of them to win 12 games. If the both get to double digits, we win the division easy.

Well below are my predictions for the season. I will pick my MVPs, ROYs, Cy Young Winners, Division Winners, Wild Card Winners, and who will beat who in the playoffs (seed in parentheses). I would be very interested to read comments with other people predictions. Well here they are:

NL

MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
ROY: Cameron Maybin, Florida Marlins
Cy Young: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
East: Philadelphia Phillies (2)
Central: Chicago Cubs (1)
West: LA Dodgers (3)
Wild Card: NY Mets (4)

NL Championship: Phillies v. Mets

AL

MVP: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
ROY: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
East: Tampa Bay Rays (1)
Central: Minnesota Twins (3)
West: LA Angels of Anaheim (2)
Wild Card: NY Yankees (4)

AL Championship: Angels v. Rays

WORLD SERIES: PHILLIES over Angels

Well, the current WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS have to be the favorites, right?