Wednesday, December 30, 2009

gm revisted and how does protectionism affect you?

Since December 2008, GMAC Financial Services, the financing arm of General Motors, has received approximately $12.5 billion in TARP money in an attempt to stabilize the company so that GM could fully recover.  At the time we were told that the money was necessary in order to save the automaker, and that they loans would be repaid once GM recovered.  Well looks like the "repayment" won't be coming anytime soon.  Yesterday the Treasury announced that it was giving GMAC an additional $3.5 billion in order to keep the company solvent.  After conducting a stress-test of the Company a few months ago, the Treasury required GMAC to raise more capital so that it would have enough capital on hand to cover any future losses, which are expected to continue into 2010.  However, GMAC was not able to find any private lenders to fill the void, so it was forced to turn to the federal government for yet another bailout.

Can anyone guess why GMAC could not find financing from the private sector?  Anyone?  It's not really that difficult a question.  Just look what happened to previous GMAC lenders.  They were the secured creditors who were left out in the cold when the Federal Government bailed out GM last year.  Rather than offering the creditors who secured their loans on GMAC's tangible assets a fair price based on the liquidation value of the company, the relative strength of their bargaining positions and contracts upon which the loans were based, Obama catered to the union special interests and made sure that lenders faced much stiffer losses (The union received approximately $10 billion in cash, $6.5 billion in dividend preferred stock and a 20% equity stake in the restructured company for about $20 billion in claims; compare this with $27 billion in claims by secured creditors who received 10-15% of restructured equity and no cash or preferred stock).

Why would anyone in their right mind lend money to GMAC after that?  If the company fails, which in my opinion is more likely than not, you will never get a fair deal for the return of your capital regardless of any contractual terms you negotiate.  This lack of private lending available to GMAC, as well as GM, is the inevitable consequence of the governmental interference in the contracts between lenders and GM.  If a lender cannot contractually guarantee a benefit for himself, then the contract has no value to him, as he now assumes all risk, and the contract will not be made.  Hence no private lending to companies that received federal bailouts.  I have no doubt that Geithner and Obama foresaw this outcome.  However, Obama has no problem nationalizing an industry and sees no problem with continued governmental control.  This was his ultimate goal.

None of this should be surprising.  Obama, although he espouses the virtues of private industry on camera to hide his socialist nature, has consistently funded government intervention and control over what should properly be a private venture.  Just look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  On Christmas Eve the government announced that it was removing the $400 billion cap on bailouts for the two GSEs.  That's right, they made this major policy announcement on Christmas Eve.  Why do yo think they would do this?  Of course they don't want people to know it.  And the vast majority of our retarded population will never have any idea.  News like this is is just words that get in the way of real news like the coverage of the Tiger Woods "scandal" and the death of Michael Jackson.  The announcement was made on a holiday and I guarantee that 99.9% of the population didn't know it happened.  But once again that's the way Obama roles.

Another example of the government intervening to protect a democratic political ally (once again the unions.  SUPRISE!) was the U.S. International Trade Commissions ruling that chinese steel imports "unfairly damaged" U.S. steel makers by receiving subsidies from the Chinese government.  The first question we should always ask in any antitrust or anticompetitive ruling is what is the goal of such a policy.  I belive that a smartly designed policy would be to ensure the protection of competition, not protection of competitors.  Our goal should be to ensure that access to a free and open market is not compromised, not that all competitors are protected from their own failures arising from rejection of their products in the marketplace.

This is the exact opposite of what occurred here.  U.S. steel makers are the United Steelworkers Union brought the case to the ITC under the dubious claim that the chinese "unfairly subsidized" their own domestic producers at the expense of U.S. producers.  First, what is the competition related problem with a government subsidy, which are often handed out in this country by the way?  How does this affect the ability of the market to function correctly?  It doesn't.  What is wrong with allowing the Chinese government to subsidize U.S. consumers of steel?  The subsidies make it cheaper to produced anything requiring steel at the expense of the Chinese taxpayer.  Sounds like a good deal to me.  There is nothing inherently wrong with that type of price competition.  If however, the Chinese jack up prices after eliminating such competition, that is an blatant predatory pricing violation of both the Sherman and Clayton Acts, and the chinese manufacturers would be subject to the stiff penalties outlined by that antitrust legislation.

However, the real reason for the I.T.C. ruling was to protect the domestic steel workers union at the expense of U.S. steel consumers (read EVERYONE).  They want to continue the status quo of impracticable benefits, unsustainable wages and absolutely no competition among workers.  I for one am sick and tired or it.  Why are the large majority of Americans expected to be productive or lose their job while teachers, government workers and other union members receive huge guarantees in pay and pensions while very little chance of ever being fired even if they are grossly negligent.  This double standard must change, and employees all across the U.S. should succeed based on merit, not political favor.

One final recommendation: to learn more about why protectionism is bad policy and why governmental intervention will almost never result in a positive outcome for the majority of the population please Free to Choose by Milton Friedman.  This rational market view of economics is straightforward, easy to understand and dispels many of the scare tactics and arguments put forward by the socialist apologists.  I still think it is the best book I have ever read (non-fiction).


Sunday, December 27, 2009

damn eagles and iran

The Eagles certainly just gave me a hell of a scare. They led 20-7 at halftime, and were up 27-10 at one point in the third quarter, but thanks in large part to a Macho Harris fumble and poor play by Donavan McNabb in the second half, Denver was able to fight back and tie the game at 27 in the fourth quarter. Luckily, after the defense stepped up and made several key stops, Jeremy Maclin made one the best catches I have seen all season to put the Eagles in field goal range with about a minute left in the game. David Akers did his thing and the Eagles pulled out a 30-27 win.

A couple of notes from todays game in no particular order:

- Brent Celek is deserving of a Pro-Bowl bid. Through 15 games he now has 69 catches for 875 yards and eight touchdowns. In my opinion the only player more worthy in the NFC is Vernon Davis. Tony Gonzales has a few more catches but less yards and touchdowns. Jason Witten has several more catches but is comperable in yardage and has only ONE touchdown. He sucks (I hate him even more because I wasted a high draft pick him in my fantasy league. And he had ONE touchdown. Gay.) Davis and Celek should go.

- Props to Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman. They played extremely well despite giving up passing TDs to Desean Jackson and Jason Avant. Neither of those Denver DBs was covering either of the Eagles WRs when they scored. For the most part they shut down the Eagles wide receivers, tackled well and never allowed the big play over the top. Champ also had a nice pick and a couple of nice pass break ups. Great game by both of them.

- McNabb needs to improve his accuracy somehow if this team is going to make a long playoff run. He played horribly in the second half and missed several open receivers. I am so tired of seeing him clap and laugh after throwing the ball at a receivers feet. Andy Reid could of helped McNabb out though by calling a little more balanced game in the second half. There was great balance in the first half, but after Asante Samuels' interception in third third quarter Reid called no pass plays on the next two possessions, and guess what? Two three and outs. On the following two possessions he called only two runs, both on first down, leading to two more three and outs. When your quarterback is struggling you've got to have more balance than that.

- Having said that, as Larry David would say, I like this team's chances next week against the Cowboys and beyond in the playoffs. They might have won ugly, but they won nonetheless. They have a chance to finish 12-4 and if either the Bears or Giants can manage to beat the Vikings, they have a great shot at a first round bye. If that happens, I think they make the conference championship at least regardless of who they play in the divisional round.

One non-Eagles note. I just want to quickly comment about what is happening in Iran. Once again the protests are heating up and pro-democracy/freedom reformists are trying to rally the nation around the ideals of freedom and liberty. These are the core values that all Americans believe in, and we should not hide our support for anyone that espouses these rights. Unfortunately, that is exactly what Obama is doing. He is more concerned with catering to needs of a illegitimate Dictator (Ahmadinejad) so that he can "engage" Iran on other issues like nuclear proliferation. Well look where "engagement" has gotten us. Iran continues to march towards a nuclear weapon and they don't give two shits that Obama wants to negotiate. Iran isn't even pretending to care what Obama and the U.N. says, they are just continuing down the path of enrichment and defiance of international law. At this point, Obama should express support for the protesters and declare that the U.S. no longer accepts Ahmadinejad as the legitimate president of Iran. In the age of global communications, this type of statement would immediately be broadcast all across Iran, especially to the protest leaders who are well-educated and most of whom live in Tehran.

Iran is the most dangerous threat to global stability in the post cold war world. If the reformers succeed in ousting this dangerous regime, world peace would be a much more achievable goal. We as Americans, and the American president, should do as much as we can to support freedom and ensure that happens.

Friday, December 25, 2009

weapon x returns

As soon as the 2009 NFL schedule was released, this week's Denver game was the one that jumped out at me most. Well maybe not the most. Next week's week 17 match-up in Dallas may have been a little more noticeable especially because of the Week 17 game between the same two teams last year, although it occurred in Philadelphia. For those that don't remember that game, I will tell you about it because it was one of the best regular season games of all time. After getting some help from Oakland earlier in the day, the Eagles had a de facto playoff game against the Cowboys with the winner getting a wildcard spot and the loser going home. Since it was basically a playoff game, you can guess how Tony Homo and the rest of the Cowgirls played; they laid one of the biggest eggs of all time in NFC East play, getting smashed to the tune of 44-6. The Eagles forced five turnovers and at one point scored TDs on two consecutive Cowboys possessions. And believe me, I have full confidence that the Eagles will do it again this year. Don't think the Cowboys are for real just because the caught the Saints sleep walking through the remainder of the regular season (The Saints should have lost their past three games). The Eagles are the hottest team in football right now that is not named the San Diego Super Chargers or quarterbacked by Payton Manning.

But back to the Denver game. Obviously regardless of the playoff seeding and potential first round bye implications, this game matters because B Dawk is going to be wearing a different colored jersey than the usual Midnight Green this Sunday at the Link. Dawkins had been the heart and soul of this franchise for far and away the best overall span of football in its history. In all honesty Brian Dawkins may be the only Hall of Fame player that played for a significant amount of time for the Eagles during that time period. McNabb has a chance, but unless he wins the Super Bowl, its hard to make the case for him in my opinion. The only others that have a chance are probably too young to know for sure. T.O. will make it, but he was only an Eagle for a year and a half. Players like Sheldon Brown, Brian Westbrook, and Desean Jackson could all potentially be in Canton one day, but they would need to continue to produce at a All-Pro level for several more years. But Brian Dawkins brings much more to a team than just great play at the free safety position: his is an emotional leader that leads by example and simply wills the players around him to perform at a higher level. Just look at Denver this season. They are not that great on paper, but Dawk has the defense flying around the field, and they have the third best defense by total yardage in the league. Dawk is just one of those type of players, and an even better person.

But obviously this game is important for several reasons unrelated to the return of Brian Dawkins. A win coupled with a Cowboys loss to the Redskins (and don't count out the Redskins: they are coming off the most embarrassing game in the history of the NFC East that wasn't the Eagles-Cowboys 2008 Week 17 game cited above, and the Cowboys once again are think way too much of themselves after beating the Saints. This is a division rivalry - anything can happen) would clinch the division for the Eagles. Additionally, if Minnesota loses one of its remaining two games and the Eagles win out they would get the two seed in the NFC and a bye in the first round. Obviously that is hoping for a lot, but it is definitely possible. If the Giants take care of business this week against Carolina, they will face Minnesota in Week 17 with a playoff birth on the line. The Vikings could definitely lose that game. But first the Eagles need to take care of business against a Denver team with a lot on the line. The key to this game for me is getting pressure on Kyle Orton. I think Denver is going to be able to run the ball, but I think the Eagles should be able to score on Denver as well. The offensive key is balance. Brian Westbrook will be back this week, and I would love to see him on the field at the same time as Lesean McCoy. That could create match-up nightmares for the Broncos linebackers. If the Eagles are able to put points on the board they should be able to force Denver into more passing situations, taking away their strength running the football. If they can put some pressure on Orton at that point, I see him having at least two turnovers. I think that will happen, and my prediction is a big win for the Eagles, with the final score being Eagles 27, Denver 16.

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

bcs playoff

So I think absolutely everyone in America who is not a president or AD of BCS conference university is in agreement that college football needs a playoff system to determine the national champion. If this doesn't happen within the next 10 years, I am seriously going to start raising capital for my ultimate dream: a professional football league that allows participants to enter as soon as they are 18 years old. I don't care if they dropped out of high school, if they can make plays I'll sign them. "Fuck college football," I'd tell recruits. "You can get just as many girls and get paid while doing it in the BFL (Bro's Football League)." I wouldn't have any of those annoying player personal conduct rules either. If you're not in jail, or prevented from travelling out of state because of parole, then you can suit up. I feel like this is a can't fail. Who wouldn't want to watch these thugs ball and what recruit would choose psych class over getting paid thousands if not millions? Time to start raising money.

But if the BCS does decide to go with a playoff system, I'll probably hold off just because college football may become better than the NFL at that point. Here is my recommendation for just such a playoff. First, I would require 16 teams. The bids would be given as follows:

- 6 automatic qualifiers fro winning one of the BCS conferences
- Automatic bid to any undefeated team
- Automatic bid to any team in the top 12 of the BCS rankings
- The remaining bids (if any) would be chosen by a selection committee
- The seeding would also be determined by the selection committee

So this year, if I acted as the selection committee, the seeding would be as follows:

1) Alabama
2) Texas
3) TCU
4) Cincinnati
5) Florida
6) Boise State
7) Ohio State
8) Oregon
9) Georgia Tech
10) Iowa
11) Penn State
12) LSU
13) BYU
14) Virginia Tech
15) Miami
16) Pitt

Using the espn playoff simulator, the tournament would proceed as follows:


(click for a larger image).

Penn State was very respectable, making it to the final four, but congratulations to 2010 NCAA football champions, The GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS!

Monday, December 21, 2009

healthcare, copenhagen and the epa

Well now that I am done with finals, I am hoping to update this thing a little more often. A lot has happened since my last post, and obviously my prediction that Penn State would play in the Fiesta Bowl did not pan out, but more about that later. Additionally, the Eagles are playing great right now, and I am going to devote an entire post to playoff scenarios later this week. For now, I want to focus on the two big political issues right now: healthcare "reform" and climate change.

At 1 AM ET last night, the Senate voted 60-40 to end debate on a healthcare bill, setting up a vote to pass the bill on Christmas Eve. The bill itself has become extremely unpopular with the public (a recent CNN poll released today showed 56% of people say they oppose it while only 42% support it), but that won't stop the Democrats from forcing it through in the middle of night. The whole process has been laughable and completely at odds with President Obama's promise of a "new era of transparency" that he promised during his campaign. The 2000+ page bill was written by 10 hand picked democrats behind closed doors, and the bill wasn't released to the public, or in that case the other Senators who had to vote on it, until just a few hours before the vote for cloture was invoked.

In short, this bill sucks, and I think that even the Democrats realize it. The major goal of the legislation was to provide every American with health insurance and do it without breaking the bank. Guess what? Neither goal will be accomplished under the Senate bill. First, although the legislation includes a new mandate that requires individuals to buy health insurance or face a stiff fine, even the Congressional Budget Office estimates that over 25 million Americans will fail to be covered even after the bill. Although Democrats were able to include several provisions that limited the insurance companies from denying coverage based on preexisting conditions and the such, they obviously have to be disappointed they had to abandon the public option, which many saw as a stepping stone to a single payer system.

But regardless of all that, there is one reason I find this bill reprehensible: Obama and the Democrats are STRAIGHT UP LYING about how much this bill will cost both in the short and long term. They are claiming that this bill is fiscally responsible based on the estimates made by the Congressional Budget Office. According to the CBO, the bill will only "cost" $781 billion over the next decade and will actually reduce the deficit by $132 billion over that time period. Really? Really? Does anyone actually believe that this bill is going to save money? Can you say that with a straight face? It simply does not make sense. They are claiming the quality will increase and costs will be lower. That's right! Democrats have finally figured out what most people couldn't: how to defy the laws of economics and make a system even better while making it cheaper in the process! Do you know why the CBO thinks this bill is going to save money? Because the tax increases to pay for the bill are going to start immediately, but over 98% of the costs do not start to accrue until 2014. So basically the CBO estimate uses 10 years of tax increases and only 5 years of entitlement benefits and then claims that it is a true estimate of the cost of the bill. This is the same type of accounting that has given us a Social Security/Medicare system that is set to bankrupt the country. Currently those programs have a total unfunded liability of over $50 trillion. That's trillion with a t. So what's the best way to address this coming financial crisis? Expand the program to include millions more. The whole entitlement state is nothing more than a Berni Madoff ponzi scheme on steroids, and if the accounting used by the CBO were used by a private company, the officers and accounts would be in jail for fraud (literally they would be).

Unfortunately, this health care bill isn't even the most destructive bill being considered by the Congress. The end of the world that is global warming must be stopped, and if we do not act... well, most people really aren't talking about what actually will happen if global warming continues. We are told horror stories about melting glaciers and rising sea levels, but I am not sold that any of these things will cause costs that are higher than those that would be imposed by cap and trade legislation. First, none of these supposed problems are going to occur in the near future or quickly. It will be a slow process and no one can predict exactly what is going to happen. By the time we start seeing any of these problems, we will be much more advanced as a society. Even under the most grave of predictions, it is impossible for anyone to say with accuracy what its effects on the human population will be. That is because humans are an unbelievably adaptable creature. We are the only mammal that can be found everywhere from North of the Arctic circle to the tropics around the equator. We will be ok.

Let's say the doomsdayers like Al Gore are correct. If we do nothing the Earth will warm two degrees over the next century. So what would be the actual effect on the human population? First, we will have advanced tremendously as a society by the time 2100 roles along. Technology has increased at an exponential rate since the advent of capitalism in the mid-sixteenth century. One hundred years ago, Howard Taft assumed the presidency, Einar Dessau made the first short-wave radio broadcast, and the first flight across the English Channel was completed. Today, instead of relying on radio we have the internet, so every individual has access to unlimited information, and we have planes that can fly without human pilots. Just imagine what life will be like one hundred years from now. I have full confidence that humans will adapt to a warmer climate, especially one that occurs slowly over decades. And do you know what the catalyst for change will be? Not a command and control economic push as desired by Obama and the other socialists, but the price mechanism. As global warming begins to impose actual costs in our society, the prices of the goods and services that are adversely affected by the climate will rise, encouraging innovation and alternative investments. Things like rising sea levels will be addressed by technological innovation. Consider this fact: 27% of the area and over 60% of the population of the Netherlands is below sea level. Using crude dikes and polders, the dutch have been able to keep the sea from destroying their homeland for hundreds of years. Imagine the innovation that would ensue if billions people faced a threat from a rising sea level, creating a large market in protecting against flooding.

And what about the positive effects of global warming? If the Earth does warm that will mean that more Northern regions will experience a longer growing season, allowing for the areas to grow crops that could traditionally only be grown in warmer climates. Critics say that the rise in global temperatures will lead to an increase in petulance and disease. Well why don't we address these problems directly rather than some indirect and causally suspect basis like global warming. If malaria will increase in tropical regions, we should invest in more mosquito nets, safe indoor DDT sprays and more education. No one can argue that stopping global warming would help protect poor populations from increased occurrence of disease more than this direct aid would. Additionally, the global warming alarmists insist that natural disasters will increase in both frequency and intensity. Even if this is true, which no once can actually prove, they are simply speculating, I think we will soon have the technology to address such concerns. Both researchers in the U.S. and especially in China are currently pursuing technology to control the weather. It sounds like science fiction, but so did a device that allowed you to not only to speak to anyone else on the globe from practically anywhere but also allows you look up any fact with the push of a button, to an observer 100 years or even 25 years ago (For those unsure, that last poorly worded sentence was my attempt to describe the iphone). For a few ideas about weather manipulation and where the technology is headed, check out this wikipedia article on weather control. Again, if the problem from increased storms is nearly as large a problem as the alarmists expect, one would expect research in this area to skyrocket.

Lastly, I just want to comment quickly on the EPA's recent "endangerment finding" that carbon dioxide is a "dangerous pollutant" and can be regulated accordingly under the clean air act. In order to make such a finding, they had to show that carbon dioxide threatens the public health and welfare. They based this finding on the "scientific consensus" that global warming will hurt "air quality," increase air born, climate-sensitive diseases, and increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Regardless of the fact that the clean air act was designed in 1970 to regulate pollutants like Sulfur dioxide that cause direct harms to human health through inhalation and the like, the fact that they found that emissions of greenhouse gases caused not only global warming but also the harms associated with it is disturbing. Traditionally, causation is a legal concept that has two parts: cause-in-fact and proximate causation. In order for a prior event to be considered a cause, both of these tests must be satisfied. For something to be a cause-in-fact, the second event would not have occurred but for the occurrence of the first. For something to be a proximate cause, an act from which an injury results as a natural, direct, uninterrupted consequence and without which the injury would not have occurred. Regardless, I see no way that someone can say that emitting carbon dioxide will cause the adverse effects of global warming. There are so many other contributing factors that contribute to these events other than U.S. emissions (the only emissions the EPA is allowed to consider in their endangerment finding) that it is impossible to say that they will not occur anyway even if the U.S. stopped emitting carbon dioxide immediately. Complex weather patterns, international emissions, and shirts in solar weather patterns are all potential intermediary actors that affect the potential harm. In order to be considered a cause in the legal sense, the event must have a direct and foreseeable impact on a harm that will not occur independently if the event is removed. Although they are strong arguments that warming is being caused by increased carbon levels, that link is too tenuous to be a legal cause under the clean air act, and any government intervention must derive its authority from new legislation, not some bullshit and speculative argument that misapplies a law that was designed to regulate pollutants that actually do directly hurt individuals because of things like toxicity.

Monday, November 16, 2009

bowl projections

With only one week left in Penn State's season, it is time to start guessing about bowls. Despite their somewhat disappointing season, there is still a good chance PSU will play in a BCS bowl this season. Here is how I believe the most likely scenario that gets Penn State in the BCS would go down.

1) PSU beats Michigan St. to finish 10-2 on the season. Cincinnati wins out and wins the Big East. Texas wins out and wins the Big 12 and plays for the national championship. The Winner of the SEC Championship game (Florida/Alabama). Either Georgia Tech or Clemson wins the ACC. Oregon wins the PAC 10. TCU and Boise St. finish undefeated.

2) The Bowls have the following selection order this year: Orange, Fiesta then Sugar. However, the Sugar Bowl would most likely lose the number one ranked team to the national championship game and the fiesta would lose Texas as well. So the order would be Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Fiesta then Sugar.

3) So automatic births will go to SEC Champion (Florida/Alabama winner), ACC Champ (Probably Georgia Tech), Big 12 Champ (Texas), PAC Ten Champ (Probably Oregon), and Big Ten Champ (Ohio State). The SEC Champ and Big 12 Champ will play in the National Championship games, opening up two at large spots. At this point, there are four at large spots open. The first goes to the loser of Florida/Alabama game. Hard to picture a scenario this doesn't happen. TCU would get the second for being the highest ranked non BCS school in the top 8. That leaves two spots. The following teams will likely meet the requirements of being in the top 12 in the BCS (note no SEC team is eligible because they already have two reps): Boise St., Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State and maybe Virginia Tech/Stanford.

4) The selection would then go as follows:
- BCS National Title - Texas v. Florida/Alabama Winner
- Sugar Selects Florida/Alabama Loser
- Fiesta Selects Penn State
- Orange already gets Georgia Tech and selects Cincinnati
- Fiesta selects TCU
- Sugar Selects either Boise St. or Oklahoma State

So Penn St. would play TCU in the Fiesta Bowl. However, a lot could happen before that. An PSU needs to take care of business on saturday against the Spartans.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

what the fuck eagles?

The Eagles are really starting to piss me off. First, take Sunday's disaster against the Cowboys. The Eagles looked absolutely hapless on offense, and most of the blame for the ineffectiveness has to fall on Donovan McNabb. Although I won't blame him for the first interception, the second, which occurred during a critical portion of the 4th quarter when the birds led 13-10, was all on McNabb. He predetermined that a delayed fade to Jeremy Maclin would be open, and it absolutely was not. Cannot make that throw up by three in the fourth quarter. That pick led to the game tying field goal. I understand why fewer shots were taken down field: the Cowboys were double teaming Desean Jackson and keeping the safeties deep, but McNabb should have adjusted and gotten the ball to Brent Celek more often. Jason Avant was also open on at least three occassions I can remember, and McNabb never even looked his way. Not to mention McNabb could not seem to make any good reads when the Cowboys brought a blitz. Both his picks came when the Cowboys brought extra pressure. In my opinion, with the increasing frequency that defenses are blitzing as total passes increase, the most important attribute for an NFL QB is the ability to read pressure and react quickly, and McNabb simply did not do that effectively Sunday.

Now I'm not saying its all McNabb's fault. Injuries to Jason Peters and a few other lineman made it difficult to find a rhythm, and a lot of blame needs to be put on Jackson for not getting open. If he wants to be an elite receiver he will need to beat double teams from time to time, and he has the tools to do it. And don't forget that Jerry Jones paid the line judge and replay official a combined $12,345,000 to mark that fourth down attempt short and ignore obvious video evidence from the replay during the challenge. If they get that simple call right, the Eagles would have had the ball on the Cowboys 35 yard line with the game tied at 13 with less than 9 minutes to play. Chances are good we win in that situation.

Things are not getting an easier for the Eagles either. Phillip Rivers and San Diego are coming to town, and the Eagles just lost Ellis Hobbes to IR and Joselio Hansen has been suspended by the League for four games for violating the League's substance abuse policy. Very gay. Stopping Vicent Jackson and the rest of the "Andre the Giant" type receivers on the Chargers without our #3 an #4 corners is going to be difficult to say the least.

But don't get me wrong. I still think the Eagles are the third best team in the NFC. Maybe second best depending if Brett Favre reverts to his old self in the playoffs and throws about 2.3 terrible picks per game, with 1.3 of them coming in crunch time. We have the fire power on offense to keep up with everyone, and although I think the defense is the real strong point for this team, injuries have proved extremely costly. A loss against the Chargers won't be the end of the world. They are an AFC team (means less for tie breaker scenarios) and the next two games are at Chicago and home against Washington, which are winnable games. I just hope the Eagle's can end one of the most devastating sports losing streaks of my life: Phillies lose World Series, Penn State loses to Ohio State, and Eagles lose to Cowboys. Ouch.

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

the phanantic takes new york

Courtesy my Dad. GO PHILS!!!

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

i hate new york

I don't just hate New York in passing. I hate everything about the place. I hate the people from New York, the ideas that those people stand for, and anything associated with that stupid city. I'm not sure I can put into words the amount of unbridled hatred I have for the most overrated place in America. Its overcrowded, smells horrible, is run poorly and the people are straight up jackasses. The people are snobby, think too way much of themselves, and are pricks. Bros don't live in New York.

For instance, last time I was in that stupid city, I was driving through Manhattan on the way to visit my girlfriend, and I was in terrible traffic. Traffic is terrible in New York, just another major drawback. Not to mention the drivers act like scumbags, cutting off anyone and everyone just to sit in traffic 10 feet ahead of where they started. Regardless, I was on 37th Street heading towards the Lincoln tunnel to get out of that crappy town just so I could reach an only slightly more bearable locale: North Jersey (*note* I have nothing against New Jersey. In fact I love the Jersey Shore unequivocally; however, North Jersey is nothing more than New York's slightly more tolerable little brother.) As I crossed Broadway the traffic at the next light was backed up all the way to the intersection I was crossing through. I was able get through the intersection but the traffic backup made it impossible for me to pull up enough to get out of the crosswalk. Now let me be clear, I was not blocking traffic and only my rear bumper was blocking the crosswalk. And it wasn't even blocking the full crosswalk, only about half of it. I was no way blocking traffic and was only slightly inconveniencing the pedestrians who were forced to walk about two feet to to the right or left. But guess what. I just so happen to pull into an intersection with two meter bitches writing tickets. They were there only because the situation I have just described is a very common occurrence, and they found a way to meet their ticket quotas. The dyke that wrote me the ticket didn't care that I wasn't blocking traffic or that I was able to move out of the intersection about ten seconds later. No, she was just a bitch who probably hates her life as a meter maid. That is a common attitude of New York inhabitants.

And that isn't even the number one reason I hate New York. That hatred is usually due to two factors: the Giants and the Mets. Well its October, so my hate for the Mets has obviously gone into hibernation because they never play at this time of year. However, I am in prime Giants hate mode and the Eagles are going to break Eli Manning's leg this weekend at the Linc. And the good news is that I will be there to watch it. But there is another force of evil that rarely gets me angry, but I bet will now be another permanent source of disdain for New York: the Yankees. I'm fucking tired of hearing about A Rod and this so called "team of destiny." These same fans who now claim that the NY Yankees are God's gift to baseball were nowhere to be found over the past nine years when they weren't winning the world series.

So you know what? FUCK THE YANKEES!!! They don't know what is in store for them. The Phillies are the real team of destiny and a soon-to-be DYNASTY. So I'm with you Jimmy, THE PHILLIES IN FIVE! FUCK THE YANKS AND FUCK NEW YORK! GO WORLD CHAMPION PHILLIES!!!!!

Sunday, October 25, 2009

steve phillips is not a bro

So Steve Phillips was fired by ESPN for having an affair with 22 year old production assistant Brooke Hundley. My first response to hearing such news was immediate indignation. Phillips was very knowledgable and a great addition to Baseball Tonight. Once again another major corporation (this time ESPN/Disney) is hating a bro for doing what bros do: have an innocent affair with a slam piece half your age. Disney must have bought into the bro hater B.S. They believe all those gay organizations like N.O.W. (National Organization of Winers) and N.A.G. (National Association of Gals) that say that bros shouldn't be allowed to do whatever they want. They think that when a bro in a position of power nails a slam piece who works for him that it is an "abuse of power" and "degrading to women." Basically they just want unconstitutional discrimination against bros and the bro way of life. They are just pissed that they aren't as awesome as bros.

However, after doing more research into the Phillips' situation it turns out that Brook Hundley is no slam piece. She was just fugly (see evidence below). In fact she is the opposite of a slam piece. Phillips should have been fired. Bros don't mess with fugly chicks unless copious amounts of riot juice is involved. I doubt Phillips was drinking riot juice at work, but if he was I will once again be back on his side. But until I see that evidence, Phillips should have been fired. He is not a bro. And he was GM of the Mets. Bros hate the Mets. Fuck the Mets.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

JIMMY!!!!

Props to my friend Cravitz for calling this as soon as he saw Jimmy's hit in game 4.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

phillies

Damn. That's about all I can say about the Phillies right now. They are playing so well and with so much heart I can't remember a time in my life I have been so excited to see a team play. After their heroic 5-4 victory over the Dodgers in game 3 on Monday, this team looks poised for a match up with the infamous Yankees in the World Series. I'm still in a state of shock about Monday's game. With Jimmy Rollins up, two out, down by a run, tying run on second, winning run on first, Rollins hit the most important hit in his career, and arguably in Phillies history. When I saw that double smoked to right center I went from feeling crushed that the Phils were gonna blow a close game and allow the series to be tied, to super excited when I saw the ball was going to drop for a hit, then out of mind histarical when I realized that the ball was going to get to the wall and that Ruiz would score from first.

And do you know what's even better? It's not the first time they've done that in these playoffs. Against Colorado in game 4, Ryan Howard and Jason Werth each had huge hits in the ninth inning with two outs, netting 3 runs, and a 5-4 victory to close out Colorado. Howard also had a go-ahead RBI in the 9th inning of Game 3. This team is never out of a game. I am unbelievably excited for tonight's Game 5, and the Phils are sending Cole Hamels to the mound. I think this is gonna be a breakout game for Cole in the playoffs. He hasn't pitched great, but he looked much better in Game 1 against the Dodgers than he did in Game 2 of the Colorado series. I think he's going to continue to improve a pitch tough to the Dodgers tonight. I also think the Phils will be able to score a few more runs off Vicente Padilla. With the rowd behind the Phils, I see Padilla getting rattled and struggling to throw strikes at some point in the game. If the Phils can continue to capitalize on walks and other Dodgers mistakes, I think they can put up enough runs for Cole to get us a lead late in the game. But I guess we will see. I cannot wait.

GO PHILS!!!!!


Thursday, October 8, 2009

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

FIRST EVER PHILLIES LIVE BLOG!!!

---Posted at 4:26 PM CT---

And that will do it. Cliff Lee had a complete game and the Phils won 5-1! They now lead the series 1-0. Overall it was a great performance. If they can that kind of starting pitching the bullpen won't be much of a problem. Now let's get it done again tomorrow! GO PHILS! WORLD PHUCKING CHAMPIONS!

---Posted at 4:23 PM CT---

Well with two outs in the 9th, Lee finally gave up a run. I hate Troy Tulowitzki. Hopefully, he can just get one more out, and the Phils can take a series lead.

---Posted at 3:47 PM CT---

So Cliff Lee just finished the 7th, and still hasn't allowed a run. Back in the dug out he walked towards Cole Hamels, who was sitting on the bench. Hamels looked up Lee with this dead stare that only a World Series MVP has, and then gave a little head nod and stuck out his hand for a fist pound. I can't describe the encounter well enough to do it justice. It was just plain bad ass. Man the Phillies are bad ass.

---Posted at 3:41 PM CT---

Terrible call at first! Jimmy definitely beat out that play at first base, but he was called out. That would have scored another run. I know we have had a couple of calls go our way earlier, but none of them were run scoring plays. Hopefully that what come back and play a role in the final outcome of the game. Still 5-0 Phils, top 7. Lee still cruising. He has now retired "more than I can count number" straight.

---Posted at 3:27 PM CT---

5-0! Ibanez gets another RBI, knocking in Werth. Man the offense is clicking. This team looks dangerous.

---Posted at 3:23 PM CT---

Now the offense is clicking! After a lead off hit by Utley, Howard nearly hit one out to left, but ended up doubling off the wall. Werth followed that up by nearly hitting an inside the park home run, but decided to hold up at third with nobody out. Things are looking good! 4-0 Phils, and they just knocked Jimenez out of the game. This is just the type of ball they need to play to win a second consecutive WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP!

---Posted at 3:13 PM CT---

Cliff Lee has a super important shut down inning after the long inning by the Phils. The importance of a pitcher coming in and getting a 1-2-3 inning after you get the lead can't be understated.

---Posted at 3:01 PM CT---

What a great at bat by Carlos Ruiz! 2-0 Phils! He battled throw eight pitches before hitting the ball hard, getting by the right fielder and cruising into second with a double! Let's get a big inning now!

---Posted at 2:55 PM CT---

AND RAUUUUUUUUL GETS THE PHILS ON THE BOARD FIRST. He pulled double down the line and Werth ran very well to score from first. Feliz then grounded out so Ibanez is on third with one out. We need another run!

---Posted at 2:45 PM CT---

Cliff Lee is rolling. After giving up a couple of hits in the early innings he has really settled in and is simply mowing down the Rockies hitters. Need to get some offense going though if we are gonna pull out a W in game one. Game is flying by as well.

---Posted at 2:23 PM CT---

Cliff Lee gets a hit then steals second? Damn. Too bad Jimmy couldn't knock him home. The Phils look a little lost vs. Jimenez right now. I'm not worried though. Somebody is gonna guess right on one of those fastballs sooner or later and hit it a mile.

---Posted at 2:00 PM CT---

GREAT THROW BY WERTH TO GET TORREALBA AT THIRD BASE! Who cares if he was actually safe. They called him out! Get's them out of the second inning.

---Posted at 1:45 PM CT---

A little bit of a shaky start for the Phils. Howard really needed to make that double play. The two hits were a blooper and an infield single with Utley playing back so I'm not worried about Lee. He was able to get out of the jam. Hopefully there were just a couple nerves and the Fightens will get through it. Need to get some runs early. Look for the big backs to be swinging away with the wind blowing out hard to right field.

---Posted at 11:23 AM CT---

Well if you so happen to be reading this right now, you are in luck! Today during the Phillies first NLDS game with the Rockies I will be blogging live! That's right, you will get to see the emotional roller coaster that is me during a Phillies playoff game. It should be very interesting. My bet is that I right them off as bums at least twice before the game is over. Cliff Lee will face Ubaldo Jimenez today, with the first pitch at 2:37 PM ET. I'm pumped the Phils will get to face a righty, so get ready for some baseball!

Monday, October 5, 2009

lions recap and a look back at cash for clunkers

Penn State easily played their best half of football yet this season when they thoroughly dominated Illinois in the second half on Saturday, en route to a 35-17 win in Champaign. Despite a disappointing first half (PSU led 7-3 at the break), the running game allowed Penn State to control the clock and the ball in the second half, and the offensive line finally learned how to run block. Both Evan Royster and Stephfon Green (pictured below) eclipsed the 100-yard mark, helping PSU out gain Illinois 208-8 in the third quarter. This is exactly the recipe that PSU needs to repeat if they hope to remain competitive in the Big Ten title race. By running the ball and controlling the clock, PSU can keep there defense off the field and fresh, allowing them to do what they do best: simply dominate Big Ten opposing offenses. This also takes some pressure off QB Dayrll Clark, who by the way responded very well after having the worse game of his career against Iowa. If Penn State can run the ball effectively, they will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten and against whoever they end up facing in a bowl game.


On a completely unrelated note, I want to say a few words about the federal government's recent cash for clunkers program. Over the Summer, the program was hailed as the most successful of all the stimulus programs. Over the lifetime of the program (including when it was extended in late august) approximately 700,000 car buyers took advantage of the program where they traded in an old "clunker" for credit towards a new, more fuel efficient vehicle. Sounds great right? Old gas guzzlers off the roads, and it's a boost to American automakers at a time they really need it. Well guess what? Looking back it seems like the plan was all that environmentally beneficial, and in the long run it probably did more to hurt the U.S. economy than it did to help it.

U.S. auto sales plummeted in September, down 25% from 2008 (GM was down 45% and Chrysler 42%). And this is compared to September 2008, right when the banking meltdown was becoming apparent. Critics predicted that the cash for clunkers program would do little than cannibalize future auto sales that would have occurred anyway, and that seems to be the case. September sales are down because many people who would have bought in September simply bought while the program was in effect. Although the automakers may have gained a marginal amount of sales that would not have occurred, there is no way the boost was enough to justify the $3 billion cost of the program. Not to mention that dealers were forced to destroy all the cars traded in during the program. Instead of recycling perfectly capable vehicles, most likely at lower costs that middle and lower class Americans could afford, the feds mandated that we destroy these economic resources.

Additionally, the environmental benefits have been overstated. One study by Hudson Institute economist Irwin Stelzer found that at best the program would reduce oil consumption by 0.2% per year, which amounts to less than one days use of gasoline. Even despite future savings in fuel costs, the program still is very unstimulating. Two University of Delaware economists recently attempted to sum all the benefits and costs of the program (increased auto sales, reduced gas consumption, environmental improvements vs. cost of the program) and found that the benefits do not outweigh the costs, and the true cost to GDP is -$1.4 billion. So much for helping the tanking economy.

In short, the cash for clunkers program is nothing more than the federal government once again attempting to redistribute wealth. The fat cats in Washington spent over $3 billion of our money (adding to the national debt) in order to subsidize new car buyers, and attempt to subsidize car manufacturers. The sad part is that it seems as if they didn't even succeed in reaching their second goal. The editorial board of the Wall Street Journal said it best in their editorial Clunkers in Practice (*please also note that this article was the basis for my post and I used many of their statistics*):
The basic fallacy of cash for clunkers is that you can somehow create wealth by destroying existing assets that are still productive, in this case cars that still work. Under the program, auto dealers were required to destroy the car engines of trade-ins with a sodium silicate solution, then smash them and send them to the junk yard. As the journalist Henry Hazlitt wrote in his classic, "Economics in One Lesson," you can't raise living standards by breaking windows so some people can get jobs repairing them.
Too bad in Washington, having a simple and catchy slogan, regardless of whether the program itself has huge hidden costs, is the goal. Politicians make a living off misleading an uneducated and uniformed electorate, and nothing will change until we vote them ALL out of office.

Monday, September 28, 2009

after the games recap

Well boy was I wrong about this year's Penn State team. I guess my blind hope for a national championship allowed be look past their unproductive running game and slew of mistakes by the offensive line over the first few games. But Iowa should made everyone recognize that the offensive line is by far the biggest weakness on this PSU team. They have weapons and an excellent defense as usual, but without consistent play on the o-line they are going to lose three more games this year. The could not protect Clark, couldn't open any holes for Royster AND committed several costly penalties. Throw in a blocked punt and that is no recipe for a win. Thank God I decided not to go up for the game because if I had there would have been a chance I would never have been seen ever again after the game. Is was brutal to watch on TV, and if I had trekked all the way up there I might have run away and moved to Northern Alaska to live as a hermit where I would never be forced to see another agonizing loss by a football team I root for ever again. Book your tickets for early January in Orlando now. Penn State is Outback Bowl bound.

On a brighter note, the Eagles destroyed the Chiefs this weekend. Kevin Kolb was excellent throwing the ball to Desean Jackson and Brent Celek (who is now officially the most underrated tight end in the league), giving the Eagles a solid win heading into the bye week. This victory was huge considering McNabb, Westbrook and Kevin Curtis all did not dress. In the NFL any game where you go out and take care of business, no matter who you are playing, is a good victory, especially when you are missing your two best offensive players.

The other big news is the return of Micheal Vick. Although he only threw two passes and had one run for 7 yards, it was good to see him on the field. My bet is that each week you will see more and more from Vick, as Andy Reid works him into the offense. I also think Vick had a more limited role because Kolb was cruising and Reid didn't want to get him out of rhythm. Also, there is no reason to pull out the stops against the Chiefs, let's save the crazy "Wild Eagle" plays for the Giants and Cowboys.

It's going to be a tough football weekend this week, as the Eagles have a bye and the PSU loss has left me so devastated I am no longer excited about this team at all. I'm sure I'm being overdramatic and I will watch the Illinois game saturday, but man did that Iowa loss hurt. Not only did they beat us last year, but this loss ends any chance we had at a national championship and its not even October. Penn State just doesn't have a tough enough schedule to win it even if they somehow win out (which they won't).

I'm thinking about going to ACL instead of watching the NFL on Sunday where I would at least get to see Pearl Jam. Even though I have a ticket I probably will just stay home though since I will see Pearl Jam in a month anyway at the last ever performance in the Spectrum on October 31st. Gonna be sick. Not to mention I will be going to the Eagles-Giants game at the Linc the next day. Should be one hell of a weekend in Philly.

So anyone interested in buying my Sunday ACL ticket? Asking $200, but mention this blog and it's yours for $150.

Monday, September 21, 2009

college gameday, the pigeons and bros

First, sorry about the long break. I have no excuse other than laziness. I would like to promise that I am going to pick up the pace of theblogging front, but no promises. First and foremost, college gameday (Presnted by the Home Depot) is coming to state college, pa this weekend for PSU's big revenge matchup with Iowa. Let me assure you that Happy Valley is going to be a very rowdy valley this weekend. Although I still think this Penn State team needs to improve quite a bit in order to compete for a national title, I think they will take care of business this weekend against an overmatched Ioaw team. After last year's tough loss, the nittany lions should be coming in with a chip on their shoulder and it is going to be LOUD in Beaver Stadium. Penn State also got the run game going last week, even if it was against Temple, and I think that Daryll Clark will be very effective passing the ball against a defense which can't matchup with PSU's skill players on offense. My prediction is that Clark opens up ther passing game early, which in turn opens up Royster in the second half. Final score: Penn State 31, Iowa 13.

Man did the eagles look terrible or what? Way too many mistakes in all aspects of the game. Hobbes had a fumble onb a kickoff return, the defense couldn't get consistent pressure on Drew Brees, and Kevin Kolb, although he played relatively well, had a very costly turnover to open up the second half and couldn't get into much of a rhythm after halftime. Basically, the Eagles played as poorly as they possibly could against a Saints team I believe should have no trouble winning the NFC South. Regardless, it is only one game, and the good news is the Eagles get Kansas City next week. The even better news is they also get Michael Vick. One of the few bright spots for the Eagles last week is how well they ran wildcat formations. With Vick in there that shold only improve. As far as quarterback, I think we should give McNabb one more week off (effectively two weeks because the birds have a bye in week 4), and give Kolb one more start. As I said, he didn't play too poorly and if he had made a couple of throws he missed (like when he thrdew behind Westbrook on third down after he burnt Jonathon Vilma) the Eagles could have actually won that game. They were only down by six at halftime before the two turnovers that basically sealed the loss. If those breaks had gone the Eagles way, it could have been a very different second half. I still think this is a playoff team, and they will show why once McNabb is able to play again in Week 5. Additionally, the next four games are all very winnable, so this is probably as good a time as ever to rest McNabb.

Lastly, check out this site: http://www.broslikethissite.com/. It is a great rundown of what life is like for all the bros out there. Man life is tough.

Monday, August 31, 2009

sporcle

If you enjoy trivia, sports, movies, tv music, history, or gaming then you are going to love http://www.sporcle.com/. Basically, you choose a category and then have to list all the items that are a species of that genus. It is very similar to a red light challenge in cash cab. I am already addicted. Check it out.

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

run this town

The new top song in the top eight, son.

Monday, August 3, 2009

a quick look at the current state of philly sports

Right now is a very exciting time to be a Philly sports fan. The Phillies are solidly in first place and are the favorites in at least the NL, if not the outright favorites to win it all and repeat as World Champions. The Eagles have had an excellent off season, and have improved a team that came within a touchdown of the Super Bowl last season. If only the Sixers could turn it around then all of the Philly Sports teams would be absolutely dominant. That's right, those are the only three Philly sports teams.

Let's start with the Phils. The big news of course, is the trade for Cliff Lee. What a ridiculously awesome move. We didn't give up the Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor, my two favorites in the Phils' minor league system. The big name they gave up was Carlos Carrasco, but he has struggled to say the least this season in Triple A, and I would much rather give him up than Drabek, who has much more upside. I think the biggest thing they gave up was Jason Knapp, but even then he still has a long road before he is ready to pitch in the majors.

Regardless, Lee is a tremendous upgrade. Actually scratch that. My roommate Randy put it best: since the phils didn't have to include Happ in the deal adding Cliff Lee was great addition rather than simply an upgrade. They didn't have to give up any players who would have any impact on this year's team, with the small exception of Marson. Lee was lights out in his first start with the phils, pitching a one run complete game while dominating the red hot Giants. Now our playoff rotation is Hamels, Lee, Blanton (having an outstanding season) and Happ. With our offense, who else could possibly be favored to win the National League?

Lastly, the Eagles look in prime position to win the toughest division in football. Unfortunately Jeremy Maclin remains unsigned, but I hear the two sides are getting close to inking a five year deal. A couple incentive bonuses seem to be the big sticking points. If Maclin can get into camp soon, he may be ready to come in for certain situations on offense even early in the season.

Unfortunately there was pretty devastating news fro Eagles camp today, as Stewart Bradley tore his ACL and will most likely miss the remainder of the season. This is a huge blow as Bradley has become a vocal leader and signal caller on defense, and without him and Brian Dawkins, there could be a leadership void. Not to mention Bradley played at a pro-bowl level last season. However, the coaching staff is big on Joe Mays, so hopefully he can step up to the plate.

All have more on the Eagles soon, but I can't go without mentioning Jim Johnson. He was a great football coach, an even better man, and an icon in the Eagles franchise. He will not be forgotten by the Eagles nation. RIP.

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

philadlephia tickets and merchandise

I just want to give a shout out to the following website:

http://www.nickdatic.com

If you are looking for Phillies, Eagles, Sixers, or Flyers tickets, jerseys or other merchandise Nick da Tic is your man. Prices can't be beat, and quality is guaranteed. Check it out.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

the five most interesting people

So here is the question. If you could sit down and have dinner with five people from anytime in the history of the world, who would they be? I think this is an extremely difficult question. At this dinner I would want to discuss a variety of issues, and there are many diverse people whose minds I would want to pick. So let's get to my answers. Here they are, in reverse order.

5. Thomas Jefferson
The founding father and author of the declaration or independence is arguably the most influential figure in the founding of our republic. His views of personal responsibility, liberty and autonomy shape many of the ways I think today. Although he was not the most brilliant economic mind (see the embargo of British and French goods prior to the war of 1812) he was still a brilliant statesman and one of the pioneering thinkers regarding the inherent freedom of men.

4. John Locke
Locke's lasting legacy was his notion of the social contract. He was the first documented human to state that the proper role of government was a limited one, and that a legitimate government only had powers that were conferred upon it by the people it governed. It was upon Locke's guiding principles that our republic was founded, and he was the first to question the tyranny of authority that was present in all governments of human kind up until his time.

3. Milton Friedman
It is Friedman's belief in the power of markets to efficiently and fairly distribute wealth that I base almost all of my political beliefs on. He refused to accept that central planning was the path to prosperity and recognized that it is the collective wisdom of all people (consumers through the price mechanism) that determine the best outcome in almost all situations. He revolutionized modern economics and showed how humans rely on incentives, which are created through numerous circumstances including free market prices, to best determine how to allocate scarce resources. To this day, Free To Choose is the manifesto I live by.

2. Albert Einstein
Perhaps the most brilliant mind of all time, Einstein could reason on a level beyond comprehension to almost all other men. He thought of the universe in a way that was unheard of in his time and was widely criticized until empirical evidence proved his theories as correct. Thanks to his theory of relativity we now recognize that the universe is a much different place than we ever imagined and that all natural forces are most likely interconnected. Although there is no general theory of physics yet, Einstein pushed us to accept the unexpected, and revolutionized modern science in the process.

1. Adam Smith
The father of modern economics, no one has done more to improve the general welfare of humanity than Adam Smith. His revolutionary work, The Wealth of Nations, moved humanity beyond the dark ages into an age where free individuals were able to make their own choices to better themselves while at the same time bettering society as a whole. This revolutionary idea that the "invisible hand" will lead free actors to improve the life of both themselves and society as a whole was the foundation of capitalism. Thanks to Smith, human kind has advanced tremendously, and the standard of living had increased at an exponential rate. He was the first to establish a functional theory of prices, equating them to the relative value of the goods and services to both producer and consumer. In my opinion, there is no other individual in history who had more influence on the history of human civilization.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

the all star break and education in america

Well it's the halfway point of the baseball season, and the world champion Philadelphia Phillies are right where they belong: in first place. Thanks in large part to a 9-1 home stand to finish the first half, they have built a substantial, but in no way insurmountable four game lead over the second place Marlins in the NL East. This team has a legitimate shot at repeating. They have the best and most explosive offense in the National League. They are scrappy both individually and as a team.

The only big question mark is pitching, both the starters and bullpen. Although the relief pitchers have been hot and cold, especially Brad Lidge, I don't think there is much they can or will do to sure up the unit. I don't think this will be a problem though. They have shown that they can succeed both consistently and in key situations (see last season), and I think they are going to recover nicely in the second half. The bigger question mark is the starting rotation.

According to reports the phils are very close to signing Pedro Martinez. Although I am not against the move because it will probably cost us very little, I don't think it is a solution. If the Phils sign him I hope I'm wrong, but I think he's out of gas and all washed up. My biggest concern is that the Phils will sign him that the front office will think that they have done enough and won't make anymore moves. In other words, they won't trade for Roy Halladay.

I am all for signing Halladay, almost regardless of cost. In a perfect world I wouldn't want to give up Kyle Drabek, but the time to win is now. This Phils have only won two World Series titles in their 125+ years of playing the game. One of those titles was last year. This is their chance; they must win now. If that means mortgaging the future, then so be it. Let's go out and get arguably the best pitcher in the game for this season and next and try to make it a dynasty. The Phils would instantly become the favorites to go to the World Series in the NL, and we would probably have the best 1-2 pitching combo in the majors in Halladay/Hamels. Amaro needs to make this happen.

On a completely unrelated note, I just want to comment quickly on the ridiculousness of public education in America. First, Texas has proposed several changes to their curriculum that is outraging many liberals (See a shortened list of changes here). For example they want to de-emphasize the historical importance of liberl icons like Thurgood Marshall and Ceasar Chavez. The only change I really want to comment on is the proposal to focus more on original historical documents rather than on texts that interpret those documents. I think this is a fantastic idea. There is no better way to learn history than to read actual account of what occurred. This way no hindsight spin can be put on historical events. Anyone who writes an account has their own agenda and biases, and whether they mean to or not they will inevitably put some kind of spin on the facts. Focusing on primary accounts can help alleviate that problem and let students think critically and draw their own conclusions based on the facts.

However, focusing on historical facts will not make a difference when the teachers themselves are biased, and once again the teacher's unions are flexing their political muscle now that Obama and the democrats control the executive and legislative branches. Thanks in large part to the unions leaning on the democrats, Obama is letting the DC voucher program expire despite the fact the DC city counsel has voted overwhelmingly to ask for the program to be extended. The union hates the program because it weakens their monopoly hold on public education funds. In reality the union doesn't care that the program has been an unbridled success, they only care about their own power and clout. They know that if similar programs are enacted around the country, teachers everywhere would start facing, get this, COMPETITION. But no, competition doesn't make the quality of output better in education they claim. That is only true FOR EVERY OTHER INDUSTRY IN AMERICA. Until we stop bowing to the teachers unions on education choice and reform, we are never going to truly bring about the needed change, especially in the country's poorest neighborhoods like Washington, DC.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

obama and appeasement

Let me premise this by first stating that I was not a big fan of George W. Bush's foreign policy strategies. However, even if Bush was a little misguided, at least he believed in democracy and the strength of America to spread the light of freedom, liberty, democracy and prosperity throughout the world. He believed that the United States shouldn't compromise its values in the face of hostility from leaders abroad. Obama on the other hand seems to believe that compromise is always the right strategy, regardless of what's at stake for the U.S.

Take for instance the recent meetings with Medevedev and Putin in Russia. The U.S. agreed in principle to bilateral nuclear arms and launch site reductions. Sounds great right? Not really when you look at the negotiating situation each side was presented with at the opening of the talks. First, Russia's nuclear arsenal is aging fast, and many of their weapons will have to be retired within the next ten years. They are simply outdated and unreliable. With a GDP less than that of the state of California, Russia simply does not have the means to maintain a Cold War size nuclear strike force. In other words, they were going to reduce the number of nuclear weapons and launch sites regardless of what the U.S. did. So basically Obama gave up something for nothing. Any advocate with any idea what he was doing would tell you this is the cardinal sin of negotiating.

But wait, you say. Obama did this to build goodwill with the Russians, right? He wanted to mend the rift the was created by Bush. The problem with that theory is that THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS GOODWILL WITH THE RUSSIANS. At least that is true with the pseudo-democratic leaders who are currently in power. They are not going to budge regardless of what the U.S, does on the issues that really matter like missile defense in Eastern Europe, NATO expansion (especially to include Georgia - as an aside I just want to predict now that within one year from this date, Russia will invade Georgia again), and preventing nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea. Putin lives by a cold war mentality, where his only goal is to weaken the U.S. at all costs. You simply can't negotiate with someone like that.

Obama's naivety has extended to his stances on Iran and North Korea as well. He still refuses to stand strong against the Ayatollah and support the dissenters who simply want the democracy that many of us take for granted. It is obvious at this point that the Iranian regime is intent on squashing any kind of dissent, and the U.S. and its allies should not recognize the government as legitimate. As a penalty for such brutality, the international community should place harsh and demanding sanction on Iran. Unfortunately, when the U.N. is running the show the best that is going to happen is that it will issue a strongly worded, non-binding resolution. As far as North Korea is concerned, Obama seems disinterested at best. He has taken no action despite the fact that North Korea has repeatedly broken international law in testing both nuclear devices and long range missiles for their potential delivery.

However, perhaps the most telling of all of Obama's foreign policy miscues is his support for ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya. Now I am not one to support military coups, but the situation in Central American can hardly be called a coup. Zelaya was attempting the circumvent the Honduran constitution in order to stay in power beyond the mandatory term limit and install himself as a de facto dictator. Basically he was trying to emulate his good buddy, an American-enemy Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. Chavez has been successful in destroying democracy and spreading a new form of Leftist dictatorship in his own country, and is looking to spread the model throughout the Americas. This would explain why Zelaya was attempting to distribute Venezuelan supplied ballots in order to facilitate in illegal vote where he was circumventing the Honduran legislature. The country's Supreme Court condemned the actions. Now the correct path would be for Zelaya to be arrested, tried and impeached from office, desperate times call for desperate measures. In order to protect their entire democrtaic government, the leaders felt it necessary to kick Zelaya out of the country. Its not like dictator has been put in place, instead the legislature simply elected a interim President until full elections later this year. Obama is supporting Zelaya under the guise of supporting the rule of law, but in reality he is doing it to appease people like Chavez in the hopes that he can later "negotiate" with him on a host of issues. I thought we learned that appeasement was a bad foreign policy in 1939.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

iran again, and obama's reqorking of the financial regulation system

Well since my last post, things in Iran seem to be getting worse. At this point the government has begun cracking down on protesters and several innocent people have been killed while trying to assemble peacefully and voice their outrage over this sham election. Earlier today President Obama made a statement condemning the "unjust actions" being taken by the Iranian government. Many Republicans have criticized the the president for not being more forceful with his condemnation. Although I had been critical of President Obama for not speaking out more clearly, I think he took a step in the right direction today. I think the President is right not to issue a harshly worded statement condemning the Iranian government in general. Although that is how every American feels, doing so would simply give fuel to the regime to spew anti-American propaganda and use it as an excuse to crack down on the dissenters. This type of harsh crackdown could end the protests altogether, along with any chance of seeing real change in Iran anytime soon.


The President should denounce the violence against the protesters. The U.S. stands for the principles of freedom of speech and assembly, and we should tell the world that any regime that does not respect those rights is no friend of ours. However, attacking the regime directly and threatening direct military action will probably do little more than given the Ayatollah an excuse to quash the protests even further. Things are currently moving in the right direction without the help of the U.S. and we should let the people of Iran continue their push for basic human rights. I'm not saying that we should never get involved, but until the regime starts using even more brutal tactics and killing its own citizens on a wider scale, we should let the Iranian people do the heavy lifting. The U.S. should allow the Iranians to contest the issue of whether the election was free and fair, and then focus the government's efforts on standing behind the rights of Iranians to peacefully protest election results that they believe have been manipulated.


But just because we won't intervene militarily, or threaten to do so, does not mean we should do nothing. First we should impose an oil embargo on Iran. Unfortunately, doing this through the U.N. will prove ineffective. The U.S. should come out and say that any country that buys or sells oil from Iran will no longer be a favored trading partner. This must include China. The consequence of doing business in Iran should be a large tariff place on any good imported from that country to the United States. If we make the penalty strong and stick to it, not even China will be able to skirt around it. They are much to dependent on U.S. imports.

On a very different note, I just want to say a few words regarding Obama's recently passed retool of the financial regulation system imposed by the federal government. The premise behind the whole bill was that although their were several agencies overseeing individual players and institutions in the financial markets, there was no single entity on the lookout for problems that posed a "systematic risk" to the system as a whole. According to Obama's flawed rhetoric, Wall Street bankers gamed the system and took tremendous long term risks in order to make large short term profits. According to the administration, the bankers deliberately packaged volatile investments such as mortgage banked securities so that they could hide risk and sell them to banks and other financial institutions for short term profits. How could anyone believe such a statement? Most Wall Street bankers are extremely intelligent people who were simply using the information available to them at the time to try and make profits for the investors they represent.

Investment bankers are logical decision makers like anyone else, and they make decisions based on two factors: potential returns and associated risks. The real cause of the crisis was not greedy bankers trying to make a quick buck, but the distortion of actual risk in the marketplace. And who caused that distortion of risk? I'm my opinion there were three principle causes: the federal government's implicit backing of Fannie May and Freddie Mac, failure of the ratings agencies and the federal reserve's easy money policy of the first half of this decade.

The first I think is quite obvious. Fannie and Freddie have always been semi-public entities, and the federal government has pressured them to finance mortgages for lower income people, even if those borrowers would not have received the loans absent the government pressure. By giving these loans to people who would not otherwise be deserving, at rates that do not reflect this risk of default, the government created bubble whereby they were almost statistically guaranteeing that default rates would be higher than would have otherwise have been expected. Additionally, by not adjusting the interest rates of these mortgages to reflect these higher probabilities of default, they did not hedge the risk of default with a higher rate of return. However, since the mortgages were backed by Fannie and Freddie, investors assumed they adequately reflected market conditions and even if they weren't that the federal government would take any losses (which they are doing now).

This also plays into the second point, that the rating agencies gave many mortgage back securities AAA ratings. What in hindsight could be considered extremely risky and small return securities received the highest ratings possible. Why? Well first there are tremendous conflicts of interest associated with these agencies. They are paid by the sellers, so they have strong incentive to inflate their ratings to make their clients happy and earn repeat business. The ratings agencies should work for the buyer, as they are evaluating risk for the buyer, not the seller. However, only federally approved agencies can perform this work, and the federal government dictates their structure. Until the federal government gets out of the rating picture, forcing buyers to independently rate potential securities investments by use of private rating entities, thereby imposing on the buyer the known risk of what happens if they trust a faulty rating, these mistakes will continue.

Lastly the federal reserve fueled a bubble mentality by keeping interest rates artificially low for too long, making them effectively negative in terms of real dollars. An effectively negative interest rate makes it more profitable to borrow money even if you don't have too, because you will be paying off the loan with a dollar that is worth less in value in the future. This lower dollar value even made up for the interest being paid on the loan under prevailing rates. By flooding the system with excess liquidity, the fed ensured that more risky investments would be made for less chance of profit. The result is the bust we are currently enduring.

So how is the Obama administration solving the problem. BY GIVING THE FED MORE POWER. He is giving an unelected body that already wields way too much power in our monetary system even more influence. It is outrageous. They will now have the power to inspect the books and require certain actions to be taken by any entity that the chairman deems to be a "systematic risk" to the financial system. Not to mention the rating agencies are not being reformed at all. For an example of how ignorance at the fed has contributed to the current collapse please read the following three articles in order: Speed Demons at the Fed, Slack Labor Markets Will Hold Down Prices, and Bernanke at the Creation. The first is an editorial by the WSJ in 2003 which predicted many of the problems were are seeing today, and criticised the fed as creating the environment for them. The second is Bernanke's remarks from a 2003 open market committee meeting were he dismisses the journal as being out of touch. The final is an editorial which points out why the journal was right, Bernanke was wrong, and that he is now pursuing the same type of policies that caused the problems in the first place. So get ready for another boom/bust cycle, except this one will probably be marked by much higher inflation. So what is the only logical thing to do? I know, let's give the fed even more power.